Publications

With Norrin M. Ripsman, "British Grand Strategy and the Rise of Germany, 1933-1936.” The Challenge of Grand Strategy: The Great Powers and the Broken Balance between the World Wars, edited by Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, Norrin M. Ripsman, and Steven E. Lobell (Cambridge University Press, 2012).

“Coercive Threats, Audience Costs, and Case Studies.” Security Studies (2012).

“The ‘Paths-to-War’ Concept.” What Do We Know about War, edited by John A. Vasquez (Rowman & Littlefield, 2012).

With William R. Thompson. “Sea Powers, Continental Powers, and Balancing Theory.” Correspondence, International Security (Fall 2011).

With Patricia T. Young. “Domestic Politics and the Escalation of Commercial Rivalry: Explaining the War of Jenkins’ Ear, 1739-48.” European Journal of International Relations 17, no. 2 (June 2011).

“Preface.” In Major Powers and the Quest for Status in International Politics: Global and Regional Perspectives, edited by Thomas J. Volgy, Renato Corbetta, Ryan G. Baird, and Keith A. Grant (Palgrave, 2011).

“Theories and Causes of War.” The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, edited by Christopher Coyne and Rachel L. Mathers (Edward Elgar, 2011).

“The Initiation and Spread of the First World War: Interdependent Decisions.” Foreign Policy Analysis 7, no. 2 (April 2011).

“Preventive War: Concept and Propositions.” International Interactions 37, no. 1 (March 2011).

With William R. Thompson. The Arc of War: Origins, Escalation, and Transformation (University of Chicago Press, 2011).

With William R. Thompson. "Balancing on Land and at Sea: Do States Ally Against the Leading Global Power?" International Security (Summer 2010).

With William R. Thompson. Causes of War (Wiley-Blackwell, 2010).

Publisher Information

With Uri Bar-Joseph. “Conscious Action and Intelligence Failure.” Political Science Quarterly 124, no. 3 (Fall 2009).

With Norrin M. Ripsman. “Debating British Decisionmaking toward Nazi Germany in the 1930s.” Correspondence, International Security (Summer 2009). 

“Case Studies and Conflict Resolution.” The SAGE Handbook of Conflict Resolution, edited by Jacob Bercovitch, Victor Kremenyuk, and I. William Zartman (Sage, 2009).

With Norrin M. Ripsman,“Wishful Thinking or Buying Time? The Logic of British Appeasement in the 1930s.” International Security (Fall 2008).

“Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy: The Contributions of Alexander George.” Political Psychology 29, no. 4 (August 2008).

“Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China.” China’s Ascent: Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics, edited by Robert S. Ross and Zhu Feng (Cornell University Press, 2008).

“Preventive War and Democratic Politics.” International Studies Quarterly (March 2008).  (Presidential address, International Studies Association.)

“Case Studies: Types, Designs, and Logics of Inference.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 25, no. 1 (February 2008).

“Counterfactuals and Case Studies.” Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology, ed. Janet Box-Steffensmeier, Henry Brady, and David Collier (Oxford University Press, 2008).

“Preventive War and the Bush Doctrine: Theoretical Logic and Historical Roots.” In The Bush Doctrine: Psychology and Strategy in an Age of Terrorism, edited by Stanley A. Renshon and Peter Suedfeld (Routledge, 2007).

“International Sources of Interstate and Intrastate War.” In Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World, edited by Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall (Washington: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2007).

Co-edited with Gary Goertz. Explaining War and Peace: Case Studies and Necessary Condition Counterfactuals (Routledge, 2007).

“Theory, Evidence, and Politics in the Evolution of Research Programs.” In Theory and Evidence in Comparative Politics and International Relations, edited by Richard Ned Lebow and Mark Lichbach (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).

With Gary Goertz. “Causal Explanation, Necessary Conditions, and Case Studies.” Explaining War and Peace: Case Studies and Necessary Condition Counterfactuals, edited by Gary Goertz and Jack S. Levy (Routledge, 2007).

With Philip Streich. “Time Horizons, Discounting, and Intertemporal Choice.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 2 (April 2007).

With Norrin M. Ripsman. “The Preventive War that Never Happened: Britain, France, and the Rise of Germany in the 1930s.” Security Studies 16, no. 1 (January–March 2007): 32–67.

“Qualitative Methods and Cross-Method Dialogue in Political Science.” Comparative Political Studies 40, no. 2 (February 2007): 196–214.

“Well Worth the Wait.” Qualitative Methods (Spring 2006).

With William R. Thompson. “Hegemonic Threats and Great Power Balancing in Europe, 1495-2000.” Security Studies 14, no. 1 (January–March 2005).

With William F. Mabe, Jr. “Politically Motivated Opposition to War.” International Studies Review (December 2004).

with Katherine Barbieri, "Trading with the Enemy during Wartime.” Security Studies (Spring 2004).

Co-editor with David Wetzel and Robert Jervis, Systems, Stability, and Statecraft: Essays on the International History of Modern Europe by Paul Schroeder (Palgrave, 2004).

Publisher Information

"What Do Great Powers Balance Against and When?” Balance of Power Revisited: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century, ed. T.V. Paul, James Wirtz, and Michel Fortmann, (Stanford University Press, 2004).

with Joseph R. Gochal, "Crisis Mismanagement or Conflict of Interests? A Case Study of the Crimean War." Multiple Paths to Knowledge in International Relations: Methodology in the Study of Conflict Management and Conflict Resolution, ed. Zeev Maoz et al (Lexington Books, 2004).

"Policy and Politics in Security Studies." The Evolution of Political Knowledge: Democracy, Autonomy, and Conflict in Comparative and International Politics, ed. Edward D. Mansfield and Richard Sisson (Ohio State University Press, 2004).

with Raymond Dacey, “Aspects of Contemporary Decision Analysis.” Synthese (May 2003).

“Applications of Prospect Theory to Political Science.” Synthese (May 2003)

“Political Psychology and Foreign Policy." Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, ed. David O. Sears, Leonie Huddy, and Robert Jervis (Oxford University Press, 2003).

with Katherine Barbieri, “The Trade Disruption Hypothesis and the Liberal Economic Theory of Peace.” Globalisation and Armed Conflict, ed. Gerald Schneider, Katherine Barbieri, and Nils Petter Gleditsch (Rowman & Littlefield, 2003).

“Economic Interdependence, Opportunity Costs, and Peace.” Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate, ed. Edward D. Mansfield and Brian M. Pollins (University of Michigan Press, 2003).

"Balances and Balancing: Concepts, Propositions, and Research Design.” Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate, ed. John A. Vasquez and Colin Elman (Prentice-Hall, 2003).

with Jonathan M. DiCicco, "The Power Transition Research Program: A Lakatosian Analysis.” Progress in International Relations Theory: Appraising the Field, ed. Colin Elman and Miriam Fendius Elman (MIT Press, 2003).

"Necessary Conditions in Case Studies: Preferences, Constraints, and Choices in July 1914." Necessary Conditions: Theory, Methodology, and Applications, ed. Gary Goertz and Harvey Starr (Rowman & Littlefield, 2003).

"Daniel Kahneman: Judgment, Decision, and Rationality." PS: Political Science and Politics (June 2002).

"Qualitative Methods in International Relations." Millennial Reflections on International Studies, ed. Michael Brecher and Frank P. Harvey (University of Michigan Press, 2002).

"War and Peace." Handbook of International Relations, ed. Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth A. Simmons (Sage, 2002).

with Joseph R. Gochal, "Democracy and Preventive War: Israel and the 1956 Sinai Campaign." Security Studies (Winter 2001/2).

with Katherine Barbieri, “Does War Impede Trade? A Response to Anderton and Carter.” Journal of Peace Research (September 2001).

"Explaining Events and Testing Theories: History, Political Science, and the Analysis of International Relations." Bridges and Boundaries: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Study of International Relations, ed. Colin Elman and Miriam Fendius Elman (MIT Press, 2001).

with Ronald R. Krebs, “Demographic Change and the Sources of International Conflict." Demography and National Security, ed. Myron Weiner and Sharon Stanton Russell (Berghahn Books, 2001).

"Theories of Interstate and Intrastate War: A Levels-of-Analysis Approach." Turbulent Peace: The Challenges of Managing International Conflict, ed. Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall (United States Institute of Peace Press, 2001).

with Thomas C. Walker and Martin S. Edwards, "Continuity and Change in the Evolution of War." War in a Changing World, ed. In Zeev Maoz and Azar Gat (University of Michigan Press, 2001).

"The Implications of Framing and Loss Aversion for International Conflict." Handbook of War Studies II, ed. Manus I. Midlarsky (University of Michigan Press, 2000).

"Reflections on the Scientific Study of War." What Do We Know about War? ed. John A. Vasquez (Rowman and Littlefield, 2000).

with Jonathan M. DiCicco, "Power Shifts and Problem Shifts: The Evolution of the Power Transition Research Program." Journal of Conflict Resolution (December 1999).

with Katherine Barbieri, "Sleeping With the Enemy: The Impact of War on Trade." Journal of Peace Research (July 1999).

"The Rise and Decline of the Anglo-Dutch Rivalry, 1609-1689." Great Power Rivalries, ed. William R. Thompson (University of South Carolina Press, 1999).

"Misperception and the Use of Force: A Commentary on Ralph White's 'American Acts of Force.'" Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology (July 1998).

"The Causes of War and the Conditions of Peace." Annual Review of Political Science (June 1998).

with Salvatore Ali, "From Commercial Competition to Strategic Rivalry to War: The Evolution of the Anglo-Dutch Rivalry, 1609-1652." The Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries, ed., Paul F. Diehl (University of Illinois Press, 1998).

with Richard R. Lau, "Contributions of Behavioral Decision Theory to Research in Political Science." Applied Psychology: An International Review (January 1998).

"Too Important to Leave to the Other: History and Political Science in the Study of International Relations." International Security (Summer 1997).

"Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations." International Studies Quarterly (March 1997).

"Prospect Theory and the Cognitive-Rational Debate." Decisionmaking on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, ed. Nehemia Geva and Alex Mintz (Lynne Rienner, 1997).

"Loss Aversion, Framing, and Bargaining: The Implications of Prospect Theory for International Conflict." International Political Science Review (April 1996).

"Contending Theories of International Conflict: A Levels-of-Analysis Approach." Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International Conflict, ed. Chester Crocker and Fen Hampson (United States Institute of Peace, 1996).

"The Evolution of Militarized Interstate Disputes." The Process of War: Advancing the Scientific Study of War, ed. Stuart A. Bremer and Thomas R. Cusack (Gordon and Breach, 1996).

"The Theoretical Foundations of Paul W. Schroeder's International System." International History Review (November 1994).

"The Democratic Peace Hypothesis: From Description to Explanation." Mershon International Studies Review (October 1994).

"Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweeping a Conceptual Minefield." International Organization (Spring 1994).

"Learning from Experience in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy." From Rivalry to Cooperation: Soviet and American Perspectives on the Post-Cold War Era, ed. Manus I. Midlarsky, John A. Vasquez, and Peter Gladkov (HarperCollins, 1994).

with Michael N. Barnett, "Alliance Formation, Domestic Political Economy, and Third World Security." Jerusalem Journal of International Relations (December 1992).

"An Introduction to Prospect Theory." Political Psychology (June 1992).

"Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical Problems." Political Psychology (June 1992).

with Lily I. Vakili, "Diversionary Action by Authoritarian Regimes: Argentina in the Falklands/Malvinas Case." The Internationalization of Communal Strife, ed. Manus I. Midlarsky (Routlege, 1992).

with Michael N. Barnett, "Domestic Sources of Alliances and Alignments: The Case of Egypt, 1962-1973." International Organization (Summer 1991).  

with Thomas J. Christensen and Marc Trachtenberg, "Mobilization and Inadvertence in the July Crisis." International Security (Summer 1991). 

"The Role of Crisis Mismanagement in the Origins of World War I." Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management, ed. Alexander L. George (Westview, 1991).

"Long Cycles, Hegemonic Transitions, and the Long Peace." The Long Postwar Peace, ed. Charles W. Kegley, Jr. (HarperCollins, 1991).

"Preferences, Constraints, and Choices in July 1914." International Security (Winter 1990-91).

with T. Clifton Morgan, "Base Stealers versus Power Hitters: A Nation-State Level Analysis of the Frequency and Seriousness of War." Prisoners of War? ed. Charles S. Gochman and Alan Ned Sabrosky (Lexington Books, 1990).

"Big Wars, Little Wars, and Theory Construction." International Interactions (1990).

"The Causes of War: A Review of Theories and Evidence." Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, vol. I, ed. Philip E. Tetlock, Jo L. Husbands, Robert Jervis, Paul C. Stern, and Charles Tilly, (Oxford University Press, 1989).

"The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique." Handbook of War Studies, ed. Manus I. Midlarsky (Unwin-Hyman, 1989).

"Quantitative Studies of Deterrence Success and Failure." Perspectives on Deterrence, ed., Paul C. Stern, Robert Axelrod, Robert Jervis, and Roy Radner (Oxford University Press, 1989).

"War and Perception." International Conflict and Crisis Management, 2nd ed., ed. Robert O. Matthews, Arthur G. Rubinoff, and Janice Gross Stein (Prentice Hall, 1989).

"When Do Deterrent Threats Work?" British Journal of Political Science (October 1988).

"Domestic Politics and War." Journal of Interdisciplinary History (Spring 1988).

"Analytic Problems in the Identification of Wars." International Interactions (1988). 

"Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War." World Politics (October 1987).

"Organizational Routines and the Causes of War." International Studies Quarterly (June 1986).

with T. Clifton Morgan, "The War-Weariness Hypothesis: An Empirical Test." American Journal of Political Science (February 1986).

with T. Clifton Morgan, "The Structure of the International System and the Frequency and Seriousness of War." Persistent Patterns and Emergent Structures in a Waning Century, ed. Margaret P. Karns (Praeger, 1986).

"Theories of General War." World Politics (April 1985).

"The Polarity of the System and International Stability: An Empirical Analysis." Polarity and War: The Changing Structure of International Conflict, ed., Alan Ned Sabrosky (Westview, 1985).

with Michael Froelich, "The Causes of the Iran-Iraq War." TheRegionalization of War, ed., James Brown and William P. Snyder (Transaction Books, 1985).

with T. Clifton Morgan, "The Frequency and Seriousness of War: An Inverse Relationship?" Journal of Conflict Resolution (December 1984).

"The Offensive/Defensive Balance of Military Technology: A Theoretical and Historical Analysis." International Studies Quarterly (June 1984).

"Size and Stability in the Modern Great Power System." International Interactions (1984).

"Misperception and the Causes of War: Theoretical Linkages and Analytical Problems." World Politics (October 1983).

War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495-1975 (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1983).

"World System Analysis: A Great Power Framework." Contending Approaches to World System Analysis, ed., William R. Thompson, ed. (Sage, 1983).

"The Contagion of Great Power War Behavior, 1495-1975." American Journal of Political Science (August 1982).

"Historical Trends in Great Power War, 1495-1975." International Studies Quarterly (June 1982).

"Alliance Formation and War Behavior: An Analysis of the Great Powers, 1495-1975." Journal of Conflict Resolution (December 1981).