Publications

American Force: Dangers, Delusions, and Dilemmas in National Security (New York: Columbia University Press, 2011).

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"Institutional Imperialism." National Interest (May/June 2011).

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“Conflict or Cooperation? Three Visions Revisited.” Foreign Affairs (November/December 2010).

“The Three Faces of NATO.” The National Interest (March/April 2009).

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“Are Civil-Military Relations Still a Problem?” American Civil-Military Relations: The Soldier and the State in a New Era, ed. Suzanne C. Nielsen and Don M. Snider (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2009).

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"The United States and Asia." Strategic Asia 2008-09: Challenges and Choices, ed. Ashley Tellis, Mercy Kuo, and Andrew Marble (Washington, D.C.: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2008).

Conflict After the Cold War: Arguments on Causes of War and Peace, Third Edition, ed. (New York: Pearson, 2008).

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"A Disciplined Defense: How to Regain Strategic Solvency." Foreign Affairs (November/December 2007).

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"Two Faces of Intelligence Failure: September 11 and Iraq's Missing WMD." Political Science Quarterly (Winter 2007-08). Revised version of chapter 5 in Enemies of Intelligence.

 

 

"Freedom, License, and Responsibility." International Studies Perspectives (November 2007).

Enemies of Intelligence: Knowledge and Power in American National Security (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007).

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“Are American Civil-Military Relations Still A Problem?” (Saltzman Working Paper No. 1, September 2007). 

 

“Not with My Thucydides You Don’t.” The American Interest (March/April 2007).

 

“Symposium Comments on Iran and Nuclear Weapons.” The National Interest (Spring 2007).

 

“Look to Bosnia, Not Vietnam, for a Realistic Solution.” Financial Times (October 26, 2006).

 

“How Superpowers Become Impotent.” Los Angeles Times (August 14, 2006).

 

“Blowtorch Bob in Baghdad.” The American Interest (Summer 2006).

 

"A Century of Intervention, Regarded with a Cold Eye." New York Times (May 2, 2006).

 

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“The Future of Force and U.S. National Security Strategy.” Korean Journal of Defense Analysis (Winter 2005).

 

“The Lure of Military Society.” The American Conservative (May 23, 2005).

 

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“The Political Support System for American Primacy.” International Affairs (London) (January 2005).

“Maybe I’ll Stop Driving.” Terrorism and Political Violence (2005).

 

U. S. National Security Strategy: Lenses and Landmarks, Princeton Project on National Security (Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, November 2004).

 

“Intelligence Looks Broke But Does It Need Fixing?” Baltimore Sun (May 2, 2004).

 

Co-editor with Thomas Mahnken, Paradoxes of Strategic Intelligence: Essays in Honor of Michael I. Handel (London: Frank Cass, 2003).

“Politicization of Intelligence: Costs and Benefits.” Paradoxes of Strategic Intelligence: Essays in Honor of Michael I. Handel, ed. Richard K. Betts and Thomas Mahnken (London: Frank Cass, 2003).

 

“Striking First: A History of Thankfully Lost Opportunities.” Ethics & International Affairs (2003).

 

Statement and testimony in U.S. Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, Hearing: S.1867 -- A Bill to Establish the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, 107^th Cong., 2d sess., February 2002.

 

“The First-Year Foreign Policy of Bush the Younger.” The Forum (2002)

 

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“The Trouble with Strategy: Bridging Policy and Operations.” Joint Force Quarterly (Autumn/Winter 2001-02).

 

“Compromised Command: Inside NATO’s First War.” Foreign Affairs (July/August 2001).

 

“The Lesser Evil: The Best Way Out of the Balkans.” The National Interest (Summer 2001).

 

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“Memorandum to the President: Military Strategy and Missions.” American Military Strategy: Memos to a President, ed. Philip. D. Zelikow (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001).

“Is Strategy an Illusion?” International Security (Fall 2000).

 

 

"Universal Deterrence or Conceptual Collapse? Liberal Pessimism and Realist Utopianism." The Coming Crisis: Nuclear Proliferation, U.S. Interests, and World Order, ed. in Victor Utgoff (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2000).

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“Strategic Ambiguity in East Asia: Benefits and Costs,” in Strategic Environment in Northeast Asia at the Beginning of the 21^st Century, Proceedings of the NIDS International Symposium on Security Affairs (Tokyo: National Institute for Defense Studies, June 1999).

"Intelligence Warning: Old Problems, New Agendas." Parameters (Spring 1998).

 

"Nuclear Peace and Conventional War.” The Journal of Strategic Studies (March 1988).

 

 

"Emerging Trends: An American Perspective." Australian-American Relations: Looking Toward the Next Century, ed. William T. Tow (Canberra: Australian Institute of International Affairs, 1998).

"Power, Prospects, and Priorities: Choices for Strategic Change." Naval War College Review (Winter 1997).

 

 

“Should Strategic Studies Survive?” World Politics, 50th Anniversary Issue (October 1997).

"A Strategic View of Force Readiness." System Dynamics and Systems Thinking in Defence and Government, ed. Keith Linard and David Paterson (Canberra: Australian Defence Force Academy and University of New South Wales, 1997).

"The Coming Defense Train Wreck... And What to Do About It." Washington Quarterly (Winter 1996).

 

 

"The Downside of the Cutting Edge." National Interest (Fall 1996).

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"Additional Views," in Making Intelligence Smarter: The Future of U.S. Intelligence: Report of an Independent Task Force (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1996).

 

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Statement and testimony in U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Hearing: Renewal and Reform: U.S. Intelligence in a Changing World, 104th Cong., 1st and 2d sess., 1996.

 

"What Will It Take to Deter the United States?" Parameters (Winter 1995-96).

 

"Why Mementos Matter." Newsweek (April 17, 1995).

 

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Military Readiness: Concepts, Choices, Consequences (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1995).

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Statement and testimony on Section 402 of S.2082 in House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Hearing: Confirmation of CIA Officials, 103d Cong., 2d sess., 1994.

 

"Outlaw With a Bomb." New York Times (December 31, 1993).

 

"Correspondence." (Reply to Michael J. Mazaar) International Security (Winter 1992/93).

 

With Bresnan, et al., Time for Critical Decisions on Vietnam, East Asian Institute Report (Columbia University, October 1992).

 

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With John Bresnan, Frederick Z. Brown, James W. Morley, and Donald Zagoria), Time is Running Out in Cambodia, East Asian Institute Report (Columbia University, October 1992).

 

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“Measuring Military Readiness: Analytical Complexity and Policy Confusion.” Security Studies (Spring 1992).

 

Statement and testimony in U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Hearings: S. 2198 and S. 421 to Reorganize the United States Intelligence Community, 102d Cong., 2d sess., 1992.

 

 

With Michael Doyle and John Ikenberry, "An Intellectual Remembrance of Klaus Knorr." Power, Economics, and Security, ed. Henry Bienen (Boulder: Westview Press, 1992).

Statement requested by U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence for hearings on S. 1003, printed in Congressional Record —  Senate, October 16, 1991.

 

"The International Context of Cuba-U.S. Relations," in Joseph S. Tulchin and Rafael Hernandez, eds., Cuba and the United States: Will the Cold War in the Caribbean End? (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, for the Woodrow Wilson Center, 1991) (transcript of lecture).

 

“Surprise, Scholasticism, and Strategy.” International Studies Quarterly (September 1989).

 

"NATO's Mid-Life Crisis." Foreign Affairs (Spring 1989).

 

"Policymakers and Intelligence Analysts: Love, Hate, or Indifference?" Intelligence and National Security (January 1988).

 

Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1987).

 

"Heavenly Gains or Earthly Losses? Toward a Balance Sheet for Strategic Defense." The Strategic Defense Initiative: Shield or Snare?, ed. Harold Brown (Boulder: Westview Press, 1987).

“Compound Deterrence vs. No-First-Use: What’s Wrong Is What's Right.” Orbis (Winter 1985).

 

"If the U.S. Backs Rebels." New York Times (May 30, 1985).

 

 

“Surprise Attack and Preemption.” Hawks, Doves, and Owls, ed. Graham T. Allison, Albert Carnesale, and Joseph Nye (New York: W.W. Norton, 1985).

“NATO Deterrence Doctrine: No Way Out.” (CISA Working Paper No. 51, Center for International and Strategic Affairs, University of California at Los Angeles, 1985).

 

“Controlling Risks in the East-West Conflict.” Problems of Communism (May-June 1984).

 

 

With Masashi Nishihara, "U.S.-Japan Security Relations." Report of the Sixth Shimoda Conference (Tokyo and New York: Japan Center for International Exchange and Japan Society, 1984).

 

“Nuclear Weapons.” The Making of America's Soviet Policy, ed. Joseph Nye (New Haven: Yale University Press, for the Council on Foreign Relations, 1984).

 

Conventional Strategy, Unconventional Criticism and Conventional Wisdom, Jerusalem Papers on Peace Problems No. 36 (Jerusalem: Magnes Press, for the Leonard Davis Institute, Hebrew University, 1984).

“Warning Dilemmas: Normal Theory vs. Exceptional Theory.” Orbis (Winter 1983).

 

"Washington, Tokyo, and Northeast Asian Security: A Survey." The Journal of Strategic Studies (December 1983).

 

"Thesis, Antithesis, Synthesis? Reply to Luttwak." International Security (Fall 1983).

 

“Conventional Forces: What Price Readiness?” Survival (January/February 1983).

 

"Strategic Surprise for War Termination: Inchon, Dienbienphu, and Tet." Strategic Military Surprise, ed. Klaus Knorr and Patrick Morgan (New Brunswick: Transaction Books, 1983).

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Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1982).

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"Hedging Against Surprise Attack." Survival (July/August 1981).

 

 

"From Changing the Guard to Guarding the Change." Orbis (Summer 1981).

"Cruise Missiles: Technology, Strategy, Politics." The Washington Quarterly (Summer 1981).

 

Statement and testimony on arms transfer policy of the Reagan administration, in U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, Hearing: Conventional Arms Sales, 97th Cong., 1st sess., 1981.  Similar version published as "Whom Should We Arm?" Brookings Bulletin XVIII, no. 1 (Summer 1981).

 

“Surprise Attack: NATO’s Political Vulnerability," International Security (Spring 1981).

 

 

"American Strategic Intelligence: Politics, Priorities, and Direction.” Intelligence Policy and National Security, ed. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., Uri Ra'anan, and Warren Milberg (London: Macmillan, 1981).

Cruise Missiles: Technology, Strategy, Politics, ed. (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1981).

"Managing Foreign and Defense Policy." Politics and the Oval Office: Toward Presidential Governance, ed. Arnold Meltsner (San Francisco: Institute for Contemporary Studies, 1981).

 

"Nuclear Surprise Attack: Deterrence, Defense, and Conceptual Contradictions in American Policy." The Jerusalem Journal of International Relations (1981).

 

Statement and testimony on nuclear proliferation implications of foreign investment in U.S. firms, in U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Government Operations, Subcommittee on Commerce, Consumer, and Monetary Affairs, Hearings: Federal Response to OPEC Country Investments in the United States, 97th Cong., 1st sess., 1981.

 

"Interests, Burdens, and Persistence: Asymmetries between Washington and Hanoi." International Studies Quarterly (December 1980).

 

"How to Balance Dirty Tricks and Democracy." Newsday (February 21, 1980).

 

With Joseph Yager [editor] and others, Nonproliferation and U.S. Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1980).

"A Diplomatic Bomb for South Africa?"  International Security (Fall 1979).

 

"Nuclear Peace: Mythology and Futurology." The Journal of Strategic Studies (May 1979).

 

"From Vietnam to Yemen." New York Times (March 25, 1979).

 

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With Leslie H. Gelb, The Irony of Vietnam: The System Worked (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1979).

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