Publications

“Fighting for Standing or Standing to Fight.” Security Studies (forthcoming).

“Politics and International Politics Scholarship.” International Studies Quarterly (forthcoming).

“Causation and Responsibility in a Complex World.” Back to Basics: State Power in a Contemporary World, ed. Martha Finnemore and Judith Goldstein (Oxford University Press, forthcoming).

“Comment on John Gaddis, George F. Kennan.” Review essay for H-Diplo (April 2012).

“Pinker the Prophet.” The National Interest (December 2011).

“Force in Our Times.” International Relations (December 2011). An expanded version is in Psychology, Strategy, and Conflict: Perceptions of Insecurity in International Relations, edited by James Davis. Routledge, 2012.

“Dilemmas About Security Dilemmas.” Security Studies (July/September 2011).

“Explaining the War in Iraq.” Why Did the United States Invade Iraq?, ed. Jane Cramer and Trevor Thrall (New York: Routledge, 2011).

“Comment on Vincent Pouliot, Security in Practice.” Review essay for H-Diplo (March 2011).

“Policy and Politics in the United Kingdom and the United States: A Review Essay.” Political Science Quarterly (Winter 2010-11).

“The Politics of Troop Withdrawal.” Diplomatic History (June 2010).

“Thinking Systemically About Geopolitics.” Geopolitics (vol. 15, no. 1, 2010).

“Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash.” Political Science Quarterly (Summer 2010).

“Morality, Policy, and Theory.” The Invention of International Relations Theory, ed. Nicholas Guilhot (New York: Columbia University Press, 2010).

“Identity and the Cold War.” The Cambridge History of the Cold War, ed. Melvyn Leffler and Odd Arne Westad (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010).

Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War (Cornell University Press, 2010).

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“Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying.” Review essay of John Mueller’s Atomic Obsession. The National Interest (November/December 2009).

“Kargil, Deterrence, and International Relations Theory.” Asymmetric Warfare in South Asia, ed. Peter Lavoy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009).

“Black Swans in Politics.” Critical Review (vol. 21, no. 4, 2009).

"Deterrence, Rogue States, and the Bush Administration." Complex Deterrence, ed. T.V. Paul, Patrick Morgan, and James Wirtz (University of Chicago Press, 2009).

"The US in a New World: An Empire But We Can't Keep It." Imbalance of Power, ed. William Zartman (Lynne Rienner, 2009).

“Unipolarity: A Structural Perspective.” World Politics (January 2009).

“Intelligence, Counterintelligence, Perception, and Deception.” Vaults, Mirrors, and Masks, ed. Jennifer Sims and Burton Gerber (Georgetown University Press, 2009).

"War, Intelligence, and Honesty: A Review Essay." Political Science Quarterly (Winter 2008-2009).

"Bridges, Barriers, and Gaps: The Relationships Between Research and Policy." Political Psychology (August 2008).

"Intelligence, Civil-Intelligence Relations, and Democracy.” Reforming Intelligence: Obstacles to Democratic Control and Effectiveness, ed. Thomas Bruneau and Steven Boraz (Texas A&M Press, 2007).

"Comments on Trachtenberg." Historically Speaking (November/December 2006).

"Containment Strategies in Perspective: A Review Essay." Journal of Cold War Studies (Fall 2006).

"Understanding Beliefs." Political Psychology (October 2006).

"Correspondence: Thinking Systematically About China." International Security (Fall 2006).

“The Politics and Psychology of Intelligence Reform.” The Forum (June 2006).

“The Remaking of a Unipolar World.” Washington Quarterly (Summer 2006).

"Reports, Politics, and Intelligence Failures: The Case of Iraq." Journal of Strategic Studies (January 2006).

"Why the Bush Doctrine Cannot be Sustained." Political Science Quarterly (Fall 2005).

Contribution to "APSA Presidents Reflect on Political Science." Perspectives on Politics (June 2005).

American Foreign Policy in a New Era (Routledge, 2005).

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"Perestroika, Politics, and the Profession: Targets and Tolerance." Perestroika, ed. Kristen Monroe (Yale University Press, 2005).

“The Implications of Prospect Theory for Human Nature.” Political Psychology (April 2004).

"The Prospects for American Hegemony." Striking First: The Preventive War Doctrine and The Reshaping of U.S. Foreign Policy, ed. Betty Glad and Chris J. Dolan (Palgrave MacMillan, 2004).

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"Security Studies: Ideas, Policy, and Politics." The Evolution of Political Knowledge, ed. Edward Mansfield and Richard Sisson (Ohio State University Press, 2004).

Co-editor with David Wetzle and Jack Levy, Systems, Stability, and Statecraft: Essays on the International History of Modern Europe by Paul Schroeder (Palgrave, 2004).

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“Logics of Mind and International System: A Journey with Robert Jervis” (an interview with Thierry Balzacq). Review of International Studies (2004).

"Understanding the Bush Doctrine." Political Science Quarterly (Fall 2003).

Co-editor with David Sears and Leonie Huddy, Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology (Oxford University Press, 2003).

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"The Compulsive Empire." Foreign Policy (July/August 2003).

"The Confrontation between Iraq and the U.S.: Implications for the Theory and Practice of Deterrence." European Journal of International Relations (June 2003).

"Realism, Neoliberalism, and Cooperation: Understanding the Debate." Progress in International Relations Theory, ed. Colin Elman and Miriam Fendius Elman (MIT Press, 2003).

"Political Science Perspectives on the Origins of World War II." The Origins of World War Two: The Debate Continues, ed. Robert Boyce and Joseph A. Maiolo (Palgrave MacMillan, 2003).

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"Conclusion: Interaction and International History.” The Transformation of European Politics, 1763-1848: Episode or Model in Modern History? ed. Peter Kruger and Paul Schroeder (Palgrave Macmillan, 2003). 

"Conclusion: Interaction and International History.” The Transformation of European Politics, 1763-1848: Episode or Model in Modern History? ed. Peter Kruger and Paul Schroeder (Palgrave Macmillan, 2003). 

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"The Dustbin of History: MAD." Foreign Policy (November/December 2002).

"International Institutions: A Comment on Schweller." International Security (Summer 2002).

"Politics, Political Science, and Specialization." PS: Political Science & Politics (June 2002)

"Theories of War in an Era of Leading Power Peace." American Political Science Review (March 2002).

"Was the Cold War a Security Dilemma?" Journal of Cold War Studies (Winter 2001).

"Variation, Change, and Transitions in International Politics." Review of International Studies (December 2001).

"Weapons Without Purpose? Nuclear Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era" (review essay). Foreign Affairs (July/August 2001).

"Signaling and Perception." Political Psychology, ed. Kristen Monroe (Earlbaum, 2001).

"Diplomatic History and International Relations: Why are they Studied so Differently?" Bridges and Boundries: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Study of International Relations, ed. Miriam Fendius Elman and Colin Elman (MIT Press, 2001).

With Alexa Jervis, "Naked Ambition." The Sciences (November/December 2000).

"Interactions and Timing in Politics." Studies in American Political Development (Spring 2000).

"Realism, Neoliberalism, and Cooperation." International Security (Summer 1999).

"America and the Twentieth Century: Continuity and Change." Diplomatic History (Spring 1999).

With Jack Snyder, "Civil War and the Security Dilemma." Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention, ed. Barbara Walter and Jack Snyder (Columbia University Press, 1999).

"Introduction." The New American Interventionism, ed. James Caraley (Columbia University Press, 1999).

"Realism in the Study of World Politics." International Organization (Autumn 1998).

"U.S. Grand Strategy: Mission Impossible." Naval War College Review (Summer 1998).

"Complexity and the Analysis of Political and Social Life." Political Science Quarterly (Winter 1997-98).

System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (Princeton University Press, 1997)

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"Counterfactuals, Causation, and Complexity." Thought Experiments in World Politics, ed. Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin (Princeton University Press, 1996).

"Perception, Misperception, and the End of the Cold War." Witnesses to the End of the Cold War, ed. William Wohlforth (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996).

"Legacies of the Cold War." Brown Journal of World Affairs (Summer 1995).

"Navies, Politics, and Political Science." Doing Navy History: Essays Toward Improvement, ed. John Hattendorf (Naval War College Press, 1995).

"Leadership, Post-Cold War Politics, and Psychology." Political Psychology (Winter 1994).

"Hans Morgenthau, Realism, and the Scientific Study of International Politics." Social Research (Winter 1994).

"What Do We Want to Deter and How Do We Deter It?" Turning Point: The Gulf War and U.S. Military Strategy, ed. L. Benjamin Ederington and Michael Mazarr (Westview, 1994).

"The Drunkard's Search." Current Approaches to Political Psychology, ed. Shanto Iynegar and William McGuire (Duke University Press, 1994).

"The End of the Cold War on the Cold War? A Review of Leffler's A Preponderance of Power." Diplomatic History (Fall 1993).

"International Primacy: Is the Game Worth the Candle?" International Security (Spring, 1993).

Co-editor with Jack Snyder, Coping with Complexity in the International System (Westview Press, 1993).

Co-editor with Philip Tetlock, Jo Husbands, Paul Stern, and Charles Tilly, Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, 3 vols. (Oxford University Press, 1990-93).

"The Political Psychology of the Gulf War." The Political Psychology of the Gulf War, ed. Stanley Renshon (University of Pittsburg Press, 1993).

"A Useable Past for the Future." Diplomatic History (Winter 1992).

"The Balance of Power and the Concert of Europe: Perspectives from Political Science." American Historical Review (June 1992).

"The Political Implications of Loss Aversion." Political Psychology (June 1992).

"The Future of World Politics: Will It Resemble the Past?" International Security (Winter 1991-92).

"The Military History of the Cold War." Diplomatic History (Winter 1991).

"Systems Effects." Strategy and Choice, ed. Richard Zeckhauser (MIT Press, 1991).

"Strategic Intelligence and Effective Policy." Security and Intelligence: New Perspectives for the 1990s, ed. Stuart Farson, David Stafford, and Wesley Wark (Frank Cass, 1991).

Co-editor with Jack Snyder, Dominoes and Bandwagons: Strategic Beliefs and Superpower Competition in the Eurasian Rimland (Oxford University Press, 1991).

Co-editor with Seweryn Bialer, Soviet-American Relations After the Cold War (Duke University Press, 1991).

"Domino Beliefs and Strategic Behavior." Dominoes and Bandwagons: Strategic Beliefs and Superpower Competition in the Eurasian Rimland, ed. Robert Jervis and Jack Snyder (Oxford University Press, 1991).

With Cheryl Koopman and Jack Snyder, "Theory-Driven Versus Data-Driven Assessment in a Crisis." Journal of Conflict Resolution (December, 1990).

"Models, Cases, and the Study of International Conflict." Journal of International Affairs (Spring/Summer 1990).

"Introduction" and "Conclusion." Soviet-American Relations After the Cold War, ed. Robert Jervis and Seweryn Bialer (Duke University Press, 1990).

"Psychology and Crisis Stability." Avoiding the Brink, ed. Andrew Goldberg, et al. (Brassey's, 1990).

The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon (Cornell University Press, 1990)

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"Foreign Policy and Congressional/Presidential Relations." The Constitution and National Security, ed. Howard Shuman and Walter Thomas (National Defense University Press, 1990).

"Will the New World Be Better?" Soviet-American Relations After the Cold War, ed. Robert Jervis and Seweryn Bialer (Duke University Press, 1990).

"Debates on Deterrence: Security and Mutual Security." Etudes Internationales (September 1989).

"Political Psychology—Challenges and Opportunities." Political Psychology (September 1989).

With Cheryl Koopman and Jack Snyder, "American Elite Views of Relations with the Soviet Union." Journal of Social Issues (Summer 1989).

With Paul Stern, Robert Axelrod, and Roy Radnor, "Introduction" and "Conclusion." Perspectives on Deterrence, ed. Paul Stern, et al. (Oxford University Press, 1989).

Co-editor with Paul Stern, Robert Axelrod, and Roy Radnor, Perspectives on Deterrence (Oxford University Press, 1989).

"Rational Deterrence: Theory and Evidence." World Politics (January 1989).

"Change, Surprise, and the Hiding Hand." Journeys Through World Politics: Reflections of Thirty-Four Academic Travelers, ed. Joseph Kruzel and James Rosenau (Lexington, 1989).

The Logic of Images in International Relations (Columbia University Press, 1988)

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"The Political Influence of Nuclear Weapons." International Security (Fall 1988).

"War and Misperception." Journal of Interdisciplinary History (Spring 1988).

"Realism, Game Theory, and Cooperation." World Politics (April 1988).

"The Contributions of APSA President Kenneth Waltz." PS: Political Science & Politics (Fall 1987).

"Morality and Nuclear Strategy." International Ethics in the Nuclear Age, ed. Robert Myers (University Press of America, 1987).

"Intelligence and Foreign Policy: A Review Essay." International Security (Winter 1986-87).

"Representativeness in Foreign Policy Judgments." Political Psychology (September 1986).

"A History of Secrets" (review essay). International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence (Summer 1986).

"More than the Facts will Bear" (review essay). International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence (Spring 1986).

"What's Wrong with the Intelligence Process?" International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence (Spring 1986).

"Improving the Intelligence Process: Informal Norms and Incentives." Intelligence: Policy and Process, ed. Alfred Maurer, et al. (Westview Press, 1986).

"The Nuclear Revolution and the Common Defense." Political Science Quarterly (1986).

"Cognition and Political Behavior." Cognition and Political Behavior, ed. Richard Lau and David Sears (Erlbaum, 1986).

"From Balance to Concert: A Study in International Security Cooperation." World Politics (October 1985).

"Pluralistic Rigor: A Comment on Bueno de Mesquita." International Studies Quarterly (June 1985).

"Technology, Politics, and Choice" (review essay). Journal of International Affairs (Summer 1985).

"Deterrence By Punishment: The Best Feasible Policy." Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (March 1985).

With Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Stein, Psychology and Deterrence (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985).

"The Madness Beyond MAD: Current American Nuclear Strategy." PS: Political Science & Politics (Winter 1984).

The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy (Cornell University Press, 1984).

"Deterrence and Perception." International Security, vol. 7, Winter 1982-83; also printed in Bernard Brodie, Michael Intriligator and Roman Kolkowicz, eds., National Security and International Security, Cambridge: Oelgeschlager, Gunn, & Han, 1983.

"Security Regimes." International Organization (Spring 1982).

"Beliefs about Soviet Behavior." Containment, Soviet Behavior, and Grand Strategy, ed. Robert Osgood et al. (University of California at Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, 1982).

"The Impact of the Korean War on the Cold War." Journal of Conflict Resolution (December 1980).

"Foreign Policy Decision-Making: Recent Contributions." Political Psychology (Summer 1980).

"Why Nuclear Superiority Doesn't Matter." Political Science Quarterly (Winter 1979-80).

"Deterrence Theory Revisited." World Politics (January 1979).

"Systems Theories and Diplomatic History." Diplomatic History: New Approaches, ed. Paul Lauren (Free Press, 1979).

"Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma." World Politics (January 1978).

"Minimizing Misperception." Thought and Action in Foreign Policy, ed. G. Matthew Bohnam and Michael Shapiro (Birkauser Verlag, 1977).

Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton University Press, 1976)

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"Cumulation, Correlation and Woozles." In Search of Global Patterns, ed. James Rosenau (Free Press, 1976).

"Consistency in Foreign Policy Views." Communication in International Politics, ed. Richard Merritt (University of Illinois Press, 1972).

"Easy Choices." Polity (Fall 1970).

"Reply to Professor North." International Studies Quarterly (June 1968).

"Hypotheses on Misperception." World Politics (April 1968).

"The Costs of the Quantitative Study of International Relations." Contending Approaches to International Politics, ed. Klaus Knorr and James Rosenau (Princeton University Press, 1968).

"The Costs of the Scientific Study of Politics: An Examination of the Stanford Content Analysis Studies." International Studies Quarterly (December 1967).